Valuation ·
Rosneft 2026
Discounted cash flow valuation of Rosneft (ROSN.ME): WACC and CAPM build, oil price deck, Vostok Oil production ramp, and financial statements.
| ROSNEFT | ||||||||||||||
| Ticker | ROSN.ME | Implied Share Price | ||||||||||||
| Date | 2026-09-22 | Today's Share Price | Upside (Downside) | |||||||||||
| Assumptions | ||||||||||||||
| Valuation Assumptions | ||||||||||||||
| WACC | 14.2% | PROJECTIONS | ||||||||||||
| TGR | 3.0% | |||||||||||||
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||||||||||
| Income Statement | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | |||||
| Revenue | 9,000 | 8,990 | 9,972 | 8,164 | 8,128 | 9,613 | 9,732 | 9,950 | 10,193 | |||||
| % growth | -0.1% | 10.9% | -18.1% | -0.4% | 18.3% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.4% | ||||||
| EBIT | 1,522 | 2,236 | 2,180 | 1,204 | 2,084 | 2,110 | 2,047 | 2,007 | 1,968 | |||||
| % of sales | 16.9% | 24.9% | 21.9% | 14.7% | 25.6% | 22.0% | 21.0% | 20.2% | 19.3% | |||||
| Taxes | - | 438 | 552 | 275 | 417 | 463 | 461 | 438 | 425 | |||||
| % of EBIT | #VALUE! | 19.6% | 25.3% | 22.8% | 20.0% | 21.9% | 22.5% | 21.8% | 21.6% | |||||
| Cash Flow Items | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | |||||
| D&A | 1,029 | 769 | 849 | 969 | 820 | 1,064 | 1,172 | 1,296 | 1,427 | |||||
| % of sales | 11.4% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 11.9% | 10.1% | 11.1% | 12.0% | 13.0% | 14.0% | |||||
| CapEx | 1,132 | 1,297 | 1,442 | 1,538 | 1,716 | 1,883 | 1,757 | 1,645 | 1,529 | |||||
| % of sales | 12.6% | 14.4% | 14.5% | 18.8% | 21.1% | 19.6% | 18.1% | 16.5% | 15.0% | |||||
| NWC (operating balance) | 567 | 564 | 668 | 676 | 691 | 708 | Operating NWC = trade receivables + inventories - trade payables (excludes cash and short-term debt). 2025 base = 567 (RUB bn, source data) held constant as % of sales; Change in NWC = NWC(t) - NWC(t-1); positive = cash outflow. Column N = terminal year (NWC grows at TGR). Historical F:H still on the old current assets - current liabilities basis (not comparable). | |||||||
| Change in NWC | (708) | (1,901) | (323) | (3) | 103 | 8 | 15 | 17 | ||||||
| % of sales | 0.0% | (7.9%) | (19.1%) | (4.0%) | (0.0%) | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | |||||
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||||||||||
| DCF | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 0 | ||||
| Revenue | 9,000 | 8,990 | 9,972 | 8,164 | 8,128 | 9,613 | 9,732 | 9,950 | 10,193 | |||||
| % growth | -0.1% | 10.9% | -18.1% | -0.4% | 18.3% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.4% | ||||||
| EBIT | 1,522 | 2,236 | 2,180 | 1,204 | 2,084 | 2,110 | 2,047 | 2,007 | 1,968 | |||||
| % margin | 16.9% | 24.9% | 21.9% | 14.7% | 25.6% | 22.0% | 21.0% | 20.2% | 19.3% | THE %MARGIN is the difference of the Revenue and the final EBIT | ||||
| Taxes | 304.40 | 438.00 | 552.00 | 275.00 | 457.11 | 463 | 461 | 438 | 425 | |||||
| % of EBIT | 20% | 20% | 25% | 23% | 22% | 21.9% | 22.5% | 21.8% | 21.6% | |||||
| EBIAT | -1217.60 | 1798.00 | 1628.00 | 929.00 | 1626.57 | 1,647 | 1,586 | 1,569 | 1,544 | |||||
| D&A | 1,029 | 769 | 849 | 969 | 820 | 1,064 | 1,172 | 1,296 | 1,427 | |||||
| % of sales | 11.4% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 11.9% | 10.1% | 11.1% | 12.0% | 13.0% | 14.0% | |||||
| CapEx | 1,132 | 1,297 | 1,442 | 1,538 | 1,716 | 1,883 | 1,757 | 1,645 | 1,529 | |||||
| % of sales | 12.6% | 14.4% | 14.5% | 18.8% | 21.1% | 19.6% | 18.1% | 16.5% | 15.0% | |||||
| Change in NWC | 0 | (708) | (1,901) | (323) | (3) | 103 | 8 | 15 | 17 | |||||
| % of sales | 0.0% | (7.9%) | (19.1%) | (4.0%) | (0.0%) | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | |||||
| Unlevered FCF | 733 | 726 | 993 | 1,205 | 1,425 | |||||||||
| Present Value of FCF | 642 | 557 | 667 | 709 | 735 | |||||||||
| Terminal Value | 13,142 | |||||||||||||
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 6,776 | |||||||||||||
| Enterprise Value (RUB mm) | 10,085,635 | FCF, PV and Terminal Value are in RUB bn; x1000 converts EV to RUB mm to match Cash, Debt and Shares (RUB mm / mm shares). | ||||||||||||
| + Cash | 630,000 | |||||||||||||
| - Debt | 3900000 | |||||||||||||
| Equity Value | 6,815,635 | |||||||||||||
| Shares | 10,598 | |||||||||||||
| Share Price | 643.09 ₽ |